diff --git a/.research/impact/btcusd-2026-07-28.md b/.research/impact/btcusd-2026-07-28.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..63ae5c0 --- /dev/null +++ b/.research/impact/btcusd-2026-07-28.md @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +- **Prior claim** — "BTC has transitioned from a stabilization phase into a nascent uptrend. As of the `btcusd-2026-07-26` edition, BTC-USD closed at **$65,338.88** — **0.17% above** its trailing 7-day average (**$65,228.23**) — with the 7-day average now **rising**, indicating a shift in momentum." (Status: supported) +- **What changed** — As of the `btcusd-2026-07-28` edition, BTC-USD closed at **$63,850.53** — **1.21% below** its trailing 7-day average (**$64,630.66**) — with the 7-day average now **falling**. +- **Assessment** — **overturned**. The reversal of the short-term trend (falling MA7) and the price falling below the 7-day moving average suggest the nascent uptrend identified previously has been invalidated. +- **Revised claim** — BTC has returned to a consolidation phase. As of the `btcusd-2026-07-28` edition, BTC-USD closed at **$63,850.53** — **1.21% below** its trailing 7-day average (**$64,630.66**) — with the 7-day average now **falling**, indicating a cooling in momentum. diff --git a/.research/provenance/btcusd-2026-07-28.json b/.research/provenance/btcusd-2026-07-28.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..09850a1 --- /dev/null +++ b/.research/provenance/btcusd-2026-07-28.json @@ -0,0 +1,12 @@ +{ + "schema": "continuous-research/provenance@v2", + "descriptor": "btcusd-2026-07-28", + "sources": [ + { + "id": "btcusd-2026-07-28", + "resource": "https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=86400&limit=20" + } + ], + "retrievedAt": "2026-07-29T03:47:54.752Z", + "hash": "sha256:369cc5bf431e454c80a46bd30fb0dd585c0712ae6e68c8ee81089fd717ab0808" +} diff --git a/data/btcusd/btcusd-2026-07-28.json b/data/btcusd/btcusd-2026-07-28.json new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7cb7bf0 --- /dev/null +++ b/data/btcusd/btcusd-2026-07-28.json @@ -0,0 +1,24 @@ +{ + "descriptor": "btcusd-2026-07-28", + "date": "2026-07-28", + "close": 63850.53, + "prev_close": 63697.72, + "day_over_day_pct": 0.24, + "ma7": 64630.66, + "close_vs_ma7_pct": -1.21, + "ma7_prev_day": 65011.82, + "ma7_trend": "falling", + "recent_closes": { + "2026-07-19": 64681.58, + "2026-07-20": 65212.6, + "2026-07-21": 66518.68, + "2026-07-22": 66082.49, + "2026-07-23": 65050.48, + "2026-07-24": 64086.59, + "2026-07-25": 64307.9, + "2026-07-26": 65338.88, + "2026-07-27": 63697.72, + "2026-07-28": 63850.53 + }, + "source": "https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=86400&limit=20" +} diff --git a/findings.md b/findings.md index 9569ca8..efd8c22 100644 --- a/findings.md +++ b/findings.md @@ -6,9 +6,9 @@ ## Short-term trend -BTC has transitioned from a stabilization phase into a nascent uptrend. As of the `btcusd-2026-07-26` edition, BTC-USD closed at **$65,338.88** — **0.17% above** its trailing 7-day average (**$65,228.23**) — with the 7-day average now **rising**, indicating a shift in momentum. +BTC has returned to a consolidation phase. As of the `btcusd-2026-07-28` edition, BTC-USD closed at **$63,850.53** — **1.21% below** its trailing 7-day average (**$64,630.66**) — with the 7-day average now **falling**, indicating a cooling in momentum. - + ---