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Add a lobby-adjusted win performance stat #3895

@PNRYates

Description

@PNRYates

Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe.

The current individual stats screens show a raw win/loss ratio. This is useful, but it does not account for the size or structure of the lobbies a player joins.

For example, a player who only joins 10-player free-for-alls and has a 0.1 W/L ratio is performing roughly averagely. But a player who only joins 100-player free-for-alls and also has a 0.1 W/L ratio is performing far above average, because each win is much harder to achieve.

The current raw ratio treats those outcomes as equivalent, even though they represent very different levels of performance.

Describe the solution you'd like

Add a lobby-adjusted win performance stat to individual player stats, shown alongside the existing raw W/L ratio rather than replacing it.

For free-for-all games, this could be based on expected wins:

expected win chance = 1 / lobby_size

Across all games:

lobby-adjusted win index = actual_wins / expected_wins

Interpretation:

1.0 = winning exactly as often as expected for the lobby sizes played
2.0 = winning twice as often as expected
0.5 = winning half as often as expected

This could be displayed as something like:

  • Lobby-Adjusted Win Index
  • Expected Win Ratio
  • Wins vs Expected
  • Win Performance

For team games, the same idea could apply using an expected win chance based on team structure, for example:

expected win chance = 1 / number_of_teams

or, for uneven teams:

expected win chance = player_team_size / total_players

The exact team-game formula may need discussion, but the goal would be the same: credit wins based on how difficult they were expected to be.

Describe alternatives you've considered

One alternative is to keep only the raw win/loss ratio. That is simple and familiar, but it can be misleading because it treats all wins and losses equally regardless of lobby size.

Another option is to show raw win percentage instead of W/L ratio, but that has the same limitation: it still does not account for whether the player is joining small games, large games, free-for-alls, or team games.

Additional context

This would make player stats more skill-indicative, especially for players who regularly join large lobbies or team games.

Raw W/L should probably remain visible because it is intuitive. The adjusted metric would add extra context rather than replace the current stat.

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