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United Route × Fleet Margin Analysis

Portfolio project — Associate Analyst, Network Planning & Analytics (United Airlines)

The problem

United's Network Planning team decides which aircraft flies which route. That choice drives both cost (fuel, crew, gate fees) and revenue potential (seats, fares). This project asks: which of United's current route ↔ aircraft pairings look mismatched, and what would fixing them be worth? This directly mirrors the job posting's mandate to "analyze fleet deployment to maximize revenue and minimize costs."

Data sources (real, public — not simulated)

  • Route network: OpenFlights public dataset (routes, airports, airlines). Filtered to United mainline, non-stop, non-codeshare routes with a US endpoint → 845 routes across 14 aircraft types.
    • Caveat: OpenFlights is a sporadically-updated historical snapshot (last major refresh ~2014), so it reflects United's network structure and aircraft mix directionally, not today's exact schedule (e.g. it still includes the 747-400, which United retired in 2018).
  • Cost/revenue benchmarks: United Airlines Holdings FY2025 Form ARS/10-K (SEC EDGAR) — system-average CASM (16.46¢/ASM), TRASM (17.88¢/ASM), load factor (82.2%), and average stage length (1,488 mi).
  • Aircraft seat counts: publicly available manufacturer/airline fleet specifications.

Method

  1. Compute each route's real distance via the haversine (great-circle) formula from airport coordinates.
  2. Assign each route's primary aircraft from OpenFlights' equipment field.
  3. Model per-route CASM = system CASM × an aircraft-category cost index (gauge economics — larger aircraft have lower unit costs) × a stage-length adjustment (well-documented in airline economics: unit costs fall as stage length grows, since fixed costs like gate/turn fees spread over more miles).
  4. Hold revenue (TRASM) at the system average across all routes, to isolate the fleet-cost question the role is scoped around, rather than modeling demand/pricing (which the public data can't support).
  5. Simulate an operationally realistic "what-if" swap — regional aircraft upgauged to mainline narrowbody, or narrowbody upgauged to widebody only past 2,500 miles — instead of pure cost-minimization (which would unrealistically suggest widebodies on thin, short routes).

Key findings

Category Avg. margin / ASM Routes
Widebody +9.6¢ 150
Narrowbody ~break-even 674
Regional Turboprop –60.1¢ 21
  • Regional Turboprop routes are the clear outlier — an estimated ~$146M/year margin drag across just 21 routes.
  • Upgauging the 313 loss-making routes to a realistic best-fit aircraft recovers an estimated ~$90M/year, though most thin regional routes don't fully flip to profitable — suggesting frequency, pricing, or partnership review is the likely next step beyond equipment alone.

What's in this folder

File Skill shown
build_analysis.py, aircraft_specs.py, build_charts.py Python (pandas ETL, haversine calc, unit-economics model, matplotlib)
analysis_queries.sql SQL (Teradata/Hive-compatible: aggregation, ranking, window functions)
United_Route_Fleet_Analysis.xlsx Excel (formula-driven workbook, 2,500+ live formulas, zero errors, charts)
United_Route_Fleet_Analysis.pptx PowerPoint (6-slide leadership-ready deck)
ua_route_fleet_analysis.csv Underlying processed dataset

Limitations, stated plainly

This is a directional demonstration of method, not United's actual internal route P&L. Real per-route fares, load factors, and crew/fuel costs — plus a genuine demand constraint — would be needed to turn this into an operational recommendation. That's exactly the kind of refinement I'd want to make with access to real internal data.

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