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Add state-specific Medicaid takeup rates and Section 1931 deprivation rules#7317

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baogorek wants to merge 12 commits intomainfrom
fix/state-specific-medicaid-takeup
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Add state-specific Medicaid takeup rates and Section 1931 deprivation rules#7317
baogorek wants to merge 12 commits intomainfrom
fix/state-specific-medicaid-takeup

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@baogorek
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@baogorek baogorek commented Feb 3, 2026

Summary

  • Replace uniform 93% national Medicaid takeup rate with state-specific rates derived from MACPAC enrollment targets (range: 58% Utah to 99% Colorado)
  • Add requires_deprivation parameter for non-expansion states using Section 1931 criteria
  • Add is_single_parent_household variable to determine deprivation status
  • Update is_parent_for_medicaid_nfc to correctly exclude married parents in non-expansion states

Fixes #7316

Test plan

  • Run existing Medicaid tests to verify no regressions
  • Verify Utah takeup rate is now 58% (not 93%)
  • Verify Texas married parents are excluded from parent eligibility
  • Run microsimulation to check state-level enrollment estimates

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

… rules

Fixes #7316

- Replace uniform 93% national takeup rate with state-specific rates
  derived from MACPAC enrollment targets (range: 58% Utah to 99% Colorado)
- Add requires_deprivation parameter for non-expansion states using
  Section 1931 criteria (TX, FL, GA, AL, MS, SC, TN, KS, WY, SD, WI)
- Add is_single_parent_household variable for deprivation determination
- Update is_parent_for_medicaid_nfc to check deprivation requirement,
  correctly excluding married parents in non-expansion states

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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codecov bot commented Feb 3, 2026

Codecov Report

✅ All modified and coverable lines are covered by tests.
✅ Project coverage is 100.00%. Comparing base (901599b) to head (d0966f3).
⚠️ Report is 4 commits behind head on main.

Additional details and impacted files
@@            Coverage Diff            @@
##              main     #7317   +/-   ##
=========================================
  Coverage   100.00%   100.00%           
=========================================
  Files            3         5    +2     
  Lines           54        68   +14     
  Branches         1         1           
=========================================
+ Hits            54        68   +14     
Flag Coverage Δ
unittests 100.00% <100.00%> (ø)

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baogorek and others added 11 commits February 3, 2026 07:47
- Utah: 58% → 53% (was 10% high vs administrative enrollment target)
- Texas: 95% → 76% (was 25% high; 95% unrealistic for non-expansion state)

These adjustments improve calibration match to state Medicaid enrollment targets.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Update test seed values to work with CA's 0.78 takeup rate (default state).
Previous values assumed a ~93% rate which no longer applies.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Revert medicaid_take_up_seed label to original, make test explicit
about state (CA) and use obvious seed values, remove redundant
changelog entry.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Replace random() call with deterministic seed from microdata,
matching the convention used by other takeup seeds.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
Covers the dataset-based probabilistic path (lines 17-18) that was
causing codecov/patch coverage failure.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@MaxGhenis
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Per our meeting we'll remove takeup from this (move to us-data) and limit this PR to 1931

@baogorek baogorek closed this Feb 5, 2026
baogorek added a commit that referenced this pull request Feb 5, 2026
…try package

Remove all random() calls and seed variables from the country package.
Takeup variables (ACA, SNAP, Medicaid) are now formula-less with default True.
WIC uses draw variables instead of random(). SSI resource test uses only
policy logic. Add state-specific Medicaid rates, Section 1931 deprivation
rules, Head Start/Early Head Start takeup variables.

Supersedes #6635, #7317. Fixes #7316.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
@baogorek
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baogorek commented Feb 5, 2026

Superseded by #7326, which includes all state-specific Medicaid takeup rates and Section 1931 deprivation rules from this PR, plus the full randomness migration. Companion data PR: PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data#451.

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Medicaid enrollment modeling inaccuracies: state-specific takeup rates and Section 1931 deprivation rules

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