data: btcusd-2026-07-28

.research/impact/btcusd-2026-07-28.md

@@ -0,0 +1,4 @@
+- **Prior claim** — "BTC has transitioned from a stabilization phase into a nascent uptrend. As of the `btcusd-2026-07-26` edition, BTC-USD closed at **$65,338.88** — **0.17% above** its trailing 7-day average (**$65,228.23**) — with the 7-day average now **rising**, indicating a shift in momentum." (Status: supported)
+- **What changed** — As of the `btcusd-2026-07-28` edition, BTC-USD closed at **$63,850.53** — **1.21% below** its trailing 7-day average (**$64,630.66**) — with the 7-day average now **falling**.
+- **Assessment** — **overturned**. The reversal of the short-term trend (falling MA7) and the price falling below the 7-day moving average suggest the nascent uptrend identified previously has been invalidated.
+- **Revised claim** — BTC has returned to a consolidation phase. As of the `btcusd-2026-07-28` edition, BTC-USD closed at **$63,850.53** — **1.21% below** its trailing 7-day average (**$64,630.66**) — with the 7-day average now **falling**, indicating a cooling in momentum.

.research/provenance/btcusd-2026-07-28.json

@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+{
+  "schema": "continuous-research/provenance@v2",
+  "descriptor": "btcusd-2026-07-28",
+  "sources": [
+    {
+      "id": "btcusd-2026-07-28",
+      "resource": "https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=86400&limit=20"
+    }
+  ],
+  "retrievedAt": "2026-07-29T03:47:54.752Z",
+  "hash": "sha256:369cc5bf431e454c80a46bd30fb0dd585c0712ae6e68c8ee81089fd717ab0808"
+}

data/btcusd/btcusd-2026-07-28.json

@@ -0,0 +1,24 @@
+{
+  "descriptor": "btcusd-2026-07-28",
+  "date": "2026-07-28",
+  "close": 63850.53,
+  "prev_close": 63697.72,
+  "day_over_day_pct": 0.24,
+  "ma7": 64630.66,
+  "close_vs_ma7_pct": -1.21,
+  "ma7_prev_day": 65011.82,
+  "ma7_trend": "falling",
+  "recent_closes": {
+    "2026-07-19": 64681.58,
+    "2026-07-20": 65212.6,
+    "2026-07-21": 66518.68,
+    "2026-07-22": 66082.49,
+    "2026-07-23": 65050.48,
+    "2026-07-24": 64086.59,
+    "2026-07-25": 64307.9,
+    "2026-07-26": 65338.88,
+    "2026-07-27": 63697.72,
+    "2026-07-28": 63850.53
+  },
+  "source": "https://www.bitstamp.net/api/v2/ohlc/btcusd/?step=86400&limit=20"
+}

findings.md

@@ -6,9 +6,9 @@
 
 ## Short-term trend
 
-BTC has transitioned from a stabilization phase into a nascent uptrend. As of the `btcusd-2026-07-26` edition, BTC-USD closed at **$65,338.88** — **0.17% above** its trailing 7-day average (**$65,228.23**) — with the 7-day average now **rising**, indicating a shift in momentum.
+BTC has returned to a consolidation phase. As of the `btcusd-2026-07-28` edition, BTC-USD closed at **$63,850.53** — **1.21% below** its trailing 7-day average (**$64,630.66**) — with the 7-day average now **falling**, indicating a cooling in momentum.
 
-<!-- claim: btc-short-term-trend | backs: close, ma7, close_vs_ma7_pct, ma7_trend | status: supported | editions: btcusd-2026-06-27, btcusd-2026-07-01, btcusd-2026-07-02, btcusd-2026-07-06, btcusd-2026-07-07, btcusd-2026-07-08, btcusd-2026-07-09, btcusd-2026-07-10, btcusd-2026-07-11, btcusd-2026-07-14, btcusd-2026-07-15, btcusd-2026-07-16, btcusd-2026-07-18, btcusd-2026-07-20, btcusd-2026-07-22, btcusd-2026-07-24, btcusd-2026-07-25, btcusd-2026-07-26 -->
+<!-- claim: btc-short-term-trend | backs: close, ma7, close_vs_ma7_pct, ma7_trend | status: overturned | editions: btcusd-2026-06-27, btcusd-2026-07-01, btcusd-2026-07-02, btcusd-2026-07-06, btcusd-2026-07-07, btcusd-2026-07-08, btcusd-2026-07-09, btcusd-2026-07-10, btcusd-2026-07-11, btcusd-2026-07-14, btcusd-2026-07-15, btcusd-2026-07-16, btcusd-2026-07-18, btcusd-2026-07-20, btcusd-2026-07-22, btcusd-2026-07-24, btcusd-2026-07-25, btcusd-2026-07-26, btcusd-2026-07-28 -->
 
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